The first quarter of 2026 delivered a number that would have been difficult to imagine only a few years ago: not a single new condominium project launched in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). According to Urbanation’s Q1 2026 Condominium Market Survey, it was the first quarter with zero launches in at least 30 years.
Sales were just as striking. Only 246 new condos sold across the GTHA in Q1 2026, down 52% from a year earlier and 94% below the 10-year first-quarter average.
Urbanation’s Q2 update later showed sales improving to 702 units, but no new projects launched for a second consecutive quarter, and pre-construction sales remained exceptionally weak. In other words, Q1 was not simply a one-quarter anomaly.
At first glance, the Toronto condo market Q1 2026 numbers may sound alarming. But they also show how far the five-year Toronto condo market downturn has travelled. Q1 may ultimately prove to be a market bottom rather than the start of another major decline.
For buyers, the resale market offers choice and negotiating leverage, while today’s lack of launches could leave the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) with a thinner supply pipeline several years from now.
The Numbers: Just How Quiet Was Q1 2026?
Urbanation’s Q1 2026 Condominium Market Survey shows how unusual the quarter was:
- 246 new condo sales in the GTHA, a 35-year low
- Zero new project launches, a first in at least three decades
- 4,295 completed but unsold new condos, more than double the level a year earlier
- About 92 months of completed new-condo supply based on the previous 12 months of sales
- 1,254 construction starts, a six-quarter high, although one large project accounted for much of the increase
- 963 cancelled units, all being converted to purpose-built rental
Since the beginning of 2024, cancellations have resulted in a net removal of 7,360 condo units from the pipeline.
Those figures explain the attention around GTA condo sales at a 35-year low and unsold condo inventory in Toronto. Developers are also rethinking what gets built.
Why Developers Simply Stopped Launching New Condo Projects
Launching a condominium project has become difficult to justify. Construction, financing, and development costs remain high, while buyers are far more price-sensitive and resale prices have adjusted faster than new-condo prices.
Urbanation reported that unsold new condos averaged an asking price of $1,189 per square foot in Q1 2026. Comparable resale units in buildings registered within the previous three years sold for an average of $859 per square foot. That created a record 38% gap between new and resale products.
That helps explain the Toronto pre-construction condo slowdown. Developers are hesitant to launch projects that may not reach the presales needed for financing, while buyers are reluctant to commit before prices stabilize.
Projects brought forward over the past year or two have tended to favour boutique or luxury segments, where the economics can differ.
The 2026 HST Relief Could Narrow the Gap
A major change since Q1 is Ontario’s temporary new-housing tax relief.
The Ontario Enhanced New Housing Rebate and Ontario New Home Affordability Payment can together provide relief equivalent to the full 13% Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on eligible new homes valued up to $1 million. For qualifying purchases from a builder, the temporary enhancement generally applies to agreements entered into from April 1, 2026, through March 31, 2027, subject to the program’s eligibility and construction-timing rules.
Different maximums and phase-down rules apply above $1 million. Ontario’s program provides up to $80,000 in relief on the provincial portion of the HST, while the Ontario New Home Affordability Payment can provide relief equivalent to up to $50,000 of the federal portion for eligible transactions.
Urbanation estimated that the one-year HST relief could reduce pricing on unsold new condos by roughly $100,000 on average and narrow the new-versus-resale gap from 38% to about 20%.
That is meaningful, but it will not erase the inventory overhang overnight.
What This Means If You’re Looking at a Resale Condo Today
For resale buyers, current conditions can create opportunities that were harder to find at the peak.
More Negotiating Leverage
With resale prices already below their 2022 peak and a large amount of completed inventory still in the broader market, buyers may have more room to negotiate on price, conditions, closing dates, and included items.
Not every seller will accept a discount, and desirable buildings can still attract competition. Judge each property on its own merits rather than assume the same conditions apply across Toronto.
More Choice
Recent years delivered record-high completions, giving buyers genuine choice across buildings, floor plans and price points.
If you are asking, should I buy a condo in Toronto in 2026, this may be a better question: can you find a well-located unit that fits your budget, lifestyle, and expected ownership timeline at a price you can comfortably carry?
Before making an offer, secure a mortgage pre-approval and understand the risk of an appraisal coming in below the purchase price. Appraisal gaps have become a serious issue for some buyers who originally purchased at peak pricing.
What This Means If You’re Considering Pre-Construction
The short-term picture is straightforward: new condo launches in Toronto in 2026 have been exceptionally limited, so buyers have fewer projects to compare. The longer-term picture is different.
Urbanation projected 21,850 condo completions in 2026, down from 29,616 in 2025 and 29,924 in 2024. Completions are projected to fall further to 14,659 units in 2027 and 13,039 in 2028, with only 2,029 units currently under construction scheduled for completion in 2029.
Because condominiums take years to move from launch to completion, today’s lack of new projects can become tomorrow’s supply constraint. That is why a future GTA condo supply shortage is becoming more relevant even while completed inventory remains high.
Urbanation’s Q2 figures reinforce that concern. With no launches for a second consecutive quarter, the combined pre-construction and under-construction pipeline had fallen 37% year over year by the end of Q2 2026.
Patient buyers can therefore assess pre-construction partly on the future completion environment, not only today’s resale conditions. Builder track record, deposit structure, price per square foot, closing costs, maintenance fees, and neighbourhood fundamentals still matter.
What This Means If You’re an Investor
The near-term investment math remains challenging. Lower resale values, higher maintenance fees, and softer rental conditions can pressure cash flow and returns.
The conversion of cancelled projects to purpose-built rental is also worth watching. In Q1 alone, 963 cancelled condo units were redirected to rental development.
For investors, timelines matter. A strategy that depends on quick appreciation is very different from one built around a multi-year hold. The potential Toronto condo market bottom in 2026 may become clearer only in hindsight, so purchases should be based on realistic carrying costs and building-level fundamentals rather than an assumption that prices must rebound quickly.
Q1 2026 May Be a Turning Point, But Not for Every Buyer
The Urbanation condo report for 2026 made one thing clear: Q1 was an extraordinary low point for new condo activity in the GTHA.
In the near term, that weakness gives resale buyers more choice and negotiating power. Longer term, today’s lack of launches and cancellations could leave the GTA with a much thinner supply pipeline.
The temporary HST relief adds another factor for buyers considering new construction before March 31, 2027.
Rather than deciding from a headline alone, look at your timeline, financing, intended use and the fundamentals of the unit or project. At Big City Realty, we track resale inventory, new launches, and pricing trends across the GTA and can help you compare the options before you commit.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why were there no new condo launches in Toronto in Q1 2026?
Developers faced a difficult combination of weak buyer demand, high construction and financing costs, and a large price gap between new and resale condos. With existing inventory selling slowly, launching additional projects became difficult to justify.
2. Is it a good time to buy a resale condo in Toronto right now?
It can be, particularly with a long-term ownership plan and stable financing. Buyers have more selection and negotiating leverage than at the peak, but building quality, fees, location, and resale history still matter.
3. How much unsold condo inventory was there in the GTA at the end of Q1 2026?
Urbanation reported 4,295 newly completed but unsold condo units in the GTHA at the end of Q1 2026. Based on the previous 12 months of sales, that represented about 92 months of completed new-condo supply.
4. Will the lack of new condo launches lead to a supply shortage later?
It could. Condo projects generally take several years to reach completion, so a prolonged period of limited launches can reduce future deliveries. Urbanation is already projecting substantially fewer completions in 2027 and 2028 than in 2024 and 2025.
5. Does the 2026 HST rebate apply to new Toronto condos?
Potentially, yes. Eligible new condos can qualify for Ontario’s temporary enhanced HST relief if the purchase and construction requirements are met. For qualifying new homes valued up to $1 million, the combined provincial rebate and affordability payment can provide relief equivalent to the full 13% HST. Buyers should confirm eligibility for their specific transaction before relying on the rebate in their budget.